Tactical Reroll
⋯

The points ledger's sliders against the Tyranid reviewers (T-591, rerun after T-594, T-596, T-597 and T-602)

From reports/tiers/2026-10-03-ledger-crack.md , rendered when the site is built.

3 Oct 2026. tools/ledgercrack.js --variants, seed T-591, 40 restarts per search, 20 shuffles × 8, each unit ranked at its best solo form, in four variants: role scarcity on Kill (T-598) off and on × the Soak effects (T-599: Soak ÷ the share of enemy turns on the table × the form's own heals) off and on, wired into the ledger's JSON by tools/ledger-merge.js (scarcity 9e42ed48aabd, soakfx ce82cf6aee21; BSData 374f505, engine dd1e7ffdcee6). Fewer knobs than T-597: 11 searched, T-597's free ones fixed (below). Every number through docs/lab/ledger/ledger.js. 657,012 evaluations in 52 s. A report: nothing adopted. The chosen variant's best setting is in tools/ledger-best.json.

Four variants, the reduced knobs

The number that matters most is the first row: how far the real search, at the shuffles' budget (its first 8 restarts), clears the best of 20 searches on shuffled Auspex letters. Positive: the sliders find something in Auspex's order that they don't find in noise.

T-597: 21 knobs, neitherscarcity off, Soak effects offscarcity on, Soak effects offscarcity off, Soak effects onscarcity on, Soak effects on (chosen)
Gap: the real search at the shuffles' budget − the best shuffle+0.02+0.04+0.06+0.05+0.07
The real search at the shuffles' budget (8 restarts)0.720.680.690.680.70
Shuffled letters: max best0.700.630.620.640.63
Shuffled letters: median best (20 × 8)0.390.280.300.320.30
Best ρ against Auspex (40 restarts)0.740.700.700.700.70
Unseen: -hivemind ρ (best Auspex solution)0.460.430.510.440.47
Unseen: -second ρ (best Auspex solution)0.380.370.420.380.42
Objective B: mean ρ (Auspex / -hivemind / -second)0.59 (0.69 / 0.57 / 0.52)0.57 (0.65 / 0.56 / 0.51)0.58 (0.65 / 0.57 / 0.51)0.57 (0.65 / 0.55 / 0.51)0.58 (0.67 / 0.55 / 0.50)
Leave one out: held-out Auspex / -hivemind / -second0.62 / 0.48 / 0.400.64 / 0.48 / 0.420.64 / 0.53 / 0.440.64 / 0.53 / 0.440.64 / 0.52 / 0.43
The page's defaults (with this variant's switches): ρ against Auspex0.260.260.250.260.24
Units two or more bands from Auspex67776
Searched knobs2111111111
Unit-form pairs kept for the search218128212129213

Chosen: scarcity on, Soak effects on, the widest gap (+0.07; then scarcity on, Soak effects off +0.06, scarcity off, Soak effects on +0.05, scarcity off, Soak effects off +0.04). Its best setting is tools/ledger-best.json.

Units two bands from Auspex in every variant: Raveners, Biovores, Mawloc. In the chosen variant: Biovores (Auspex S, ledger C), Raveners (Auspex S, ledger C), Hierophant (Auspex D, ledger B), Mawloc (Auspex B, ledger D), Neurotyrant (Auspex A, ledger C), Parasite of Mortrex (Auspex B, ledger D). In T-597's run: Raveners, Biovores, Hormagaunts, Hyperadapted Raveners, Norn Emissary, Tyranid Warriors with Ranged Bio-Weapons.

The knobs: kept and fixed

T-597's run reached ρ 0.72 on Auspex at the shuffles' budget against 0.70 for the best of 20 shuffled letter sets: its 21 knobs nearly fit noise. So every knob it left free (its span across the 6 end points within 0.02 of its best wider than half its range) is fixed here, and the threat weighting and Jordan's calls leave the search.

Kept (11, searched): wSoak in [0, 5]; wHold in [0, 5]; wSpawn in [0, 5]; lands in [0, 2]; r.movement in [1, 3]; r.lone in [1, 3]; r.synapse in [1, 3]; r.debuff in [1, 3]; r.buff in [1, 3]; r.heal in [1, 3]; r.cp in [1, 3]. These were pinned or narrow in T-597's run (span at most half the range).

Fixed (T-597's free knobs):

KnobFixed atIts span near T-597's best
wKill2.01151% (0.17 to 0.69 of the largest weight; median 0.402)
wScore2.74256% (0.38 to 0.95; median 0.548)
wActions2.289100% (0 to 1; median 0.458)
wPresence2.69499% (0.01 to 1; median 0.539)
beta63 (3 end points), 12 (2), ∞ (1); fixed at the page's default, between the window's middle two
r.mortal150.25% (1.245 to 2.25)
r.first194% (1 to 2.87)
r.detachment182% (1.365 to 3)
threat078% (0 to 0.78); the fit's own t 0.012: dropped

Weights at the median of T-597's near-best end points as a share of the largest weight, × 5 (the box's top, where the spawned worth sat in five of the six), so they keep their place beside the searched weights. Multipliers at 1. β at the page's default 6. The threat weighting t at 0, which is where the fit put it (0.012); the page's own default stays 1 (Jordan's reasoning).

Jordan's calls (never searched, at the page's defaults): placed anywhere 1, Better Overwatch ×1, the tunnel credit 0. Always 1: Kill premium; rule kinds carried by fewer than three units (none). Band cuts aren't knobs (ρ ignores them).

The chosen variant: scarcity on, Soak effects on

The best solution as sliders

Auspex ρ 0.70 (-hivemind 0.47, -second 0.42; ρ(Value, points) 0.26): Kill 1.207 · Soak 0.655 · Score 1.645 · Actions 1.373 · Hold 2.515 · Presence 1.616 · Spawned worth 3 · Kill premium 1 · Melee lands scale 1.32 · Threat weighting 0 · β 6 · Extra movement ×1 · Lone Operative ×1.006 · Synapse ×1.357 · Debuffs ×1.112 · Buffs ×1.245 · Healing ×1.193 · Command points ×3 · Mortal wounds outside attacks, Fights First, Detachment rules ×1 · Role scarcity on · Soak effects on · Your calls: placed anywhere 1, Better Overwatch ×1, tunnel credit 0 · band cuts S 916.5, A 573.9, B 419.3, C 296.2 · combo threshold 10% · Compare as single units on. (After rounding: Auspex ρ 0.70.)

The best solution on the page. Weights are scaled down together to fit the page's ranges (ρ ignores the scale); the band cuts sit at the default shares of the setting's own Values (10/20/30/25/15%).

Units two or more bands from Auspex

At the best Auspex solution, bands at the page's default shares of its own Values. Lines per 100 points, one turn; Kill after role scarcity (its factor in brackets), Soak after the Soak effects (theirs in brackets).

UnitAuspexLedgerBest solo formPtsKill (scarcity ×)Soak (effects ×)OCActionsHoldSpawnPresenceValue
BiovoresSCBiovores ×3, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault14076.3 (1.11)173.2 (1.00)2.10.75.739.31.43574.3
RavenersSCRaveners ×5, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)125183.6 (1.55)132.4 (1.00)4.00.87.90.00.80561.7
HierophantDBHierophant ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault810167.9 (2.36)300.7 (1.00)1.50.16.70.00.12698.9
MawlocBDMawloc ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault13590.8 (1.00)207.7 (1.00)3.00.79.80.00.74462.4
NeurotyrantACNeurotyrant ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault13078.0 (0.95)148.9 (1.00)2.30.85.00.00.77529.0
Parasite of MortrexBDParasite of Mortrex ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Swarming Instincts)7069.1 (0.77)81.7 (1.00)1.41.41.97.71.62431.1

The plain answer

Which knobs are pinned

Across the 16 end points within 0.02 of the best Auspex ρ.

KnobLowHighSpan (share of range)Pinned?
wSoak0.7551.57816%yes
wHold2.167557%no, free
wSpawn4.327513%yes
lands0.6611.44939%no
r.movement11.72736%no
r.lone12.8392%no, free
r.synapse1.3571.91828%no
r.debuff1.0771.44318%yes
r.buff1.1941.59320%yes
r.heal1.1931.74628%no
r.cp2.81239%yes

The top solutions

#RestartsAuspex ρ-hivemind ρ-second ρρ(Value, points)wSoakwHoldwSpawnlandsr.movementr.loner.synapser.debuffr.buffr.healr.cp
110.700.470.420.261.0924.19151.3211.0061.3571.1121.2451.1933
210.700.460.420.241.1084.34551.4111.4561.51.0921.3791.2973
310.700.490.420.170.7553.08451.33611.0241.51.2391.1941.3643
420.700.460.430.241.344.68851.36111.2341.5691.0921.2461.3512.812
510.690.440.430.261.5783.3164.7661.44911.1851.51.0771.4041.2123

Page links: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

The shuffle test

Auspex's 44 letters shuffled among the units it rates, 20 times, each searched the same way with 8 restarts; the real search compared at the same budget.

min10thmedian90thmaxmean
best ρ on shuffled letters−0.030.160.300.430.630.30
the real search, first 8 restarts0.70
the real search, all 40 restarts0.70

Objective B and leaving one reviewer out

Fit onFitted (mean ρ)Auspex ρ-hivemind ρ-second ρHeld-out ρρ(Value, points)Link
A: Auspex0.700.700.470.42-hivemind, -second0.26page
B: all three0.580.670.550.50none0.21page
the two but auspex0.540.640.570.520.640.20page
the two but hivemind0.600.650.520.550.520.28page
the two but second0.630.690.560.430.430.15page
the page's defaults (these switches)0.240.070.340.42

Every unit's band

At the best Auspex solution, as single units, bands at the default shares of its own Values (10/20/30/25/15%). Kill after role scarcity, its factor in brackets; Soak after the Soak effects, theirs in brackets.

UnitAuspex-hivemind-secondLedgerValueKill (scarcity ×)Soak (effects ×)Best solo form
Hive TyrantSASS2548.2145.8 (1.81)169.1 (1.00)Hive Tyrant ×1, Auto-equip, Subterranean Assault
The SwarmlordSSAS2514.1210.9 (1.93)157.0 (1.00)The Swarmlord ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Winged Hive TyrantABBS2234.4153.6 (1.92)148.1 (1.00)Winged Hive Tyrant ×1, Auto-equip, Subterranean Assault
Von Ryan's LeapersSBAS2110.5166.1 (0.98)237.2 (1.00)Von Ryan's Leapers ×6, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
DeathleaperASBS1675.8134.8 (1.34)188.3 (1.00)Deathleaper ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Lictor–ASS1527.3179.7 (1.34)111.8 (1.00)Lictor ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
NeurolictorSSBA1456.566.1 (0.88)152.9 (1.00)Neurolictor ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
TervigonBCCA1364.5114.9 (1.91)368.3 (1.00)Tervigon ×1, Auto-equip, Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
TyrannofexSAAA1242.0246.8 (2.06)553.6 (1.00)Tyrannofex ×1, Auto-equip, Subterranean Assault
Norn EmissarySBSA1053.0133.5 (1.56)400.4 (1.00)Norn Emissary ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
ZoanthropesSABA1013.7176.1 (1.90)183.1 (1.00)Zoanthropes ×6, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Hyperadapted RavenersSABA998.1286.3 (1.81)115.6 (1.00)Hyperadapted Raveners ×5, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
MaleceptorSA–A983.8161.5 (1.75)255.9 (1.00)Maleceptor ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
HormagauntsSABA981.1197.4 (1.79)155.9 (1.00)Hormagaunts ×20, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
ExocrineAAAA970.2248.4 (2.01)207.7 (1.00)Exocrine ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Norn AssimilatorSBSA956.5198.1 (2.12)241.2 (1.00)Norn Assimilator ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Hive GuardABBB951.6252.8 (1.79)318.6 (1.00)Hive Guard ×6, datasheet wargear, Subterranean Assault
Old One EyeBB–B951.2189.5 (2.33)342.1 (1.44)Old One Eye ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Tyranid Warriors with Ranged Bio-WeaponsCCBB950.1185.9 (1.08)171.6 (1.00)Tyranid Warriors with Ranged Bio-Weapons ×6, Auto-equip, Subterranean Assault
PsychophageBBAB934.7183.6 (1.79)238.1 (1.00)Psychophage ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Assimilation Swarm
HaruspexBBAB907.4243.7 (1.82)239.0 (1.00)Haruspex ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
NeurogauntsBCCB894.445.4 (1.26)193.9 (1.00)Neurogaunts ×22, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Termagants–B–B872.8101.5 (1.37)170.1 (1.00)Termagants ×20, Auto-equip, Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
PyrovoresA––B845.7138.9 (1.01)242.5 (1.00)Pyrovores ×3, datasheet wargear (no choices), Assimilation Swarm
TrygonBC–B803.6266.1 (1.76)200.2 (1.00)Trygon ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Screamer-killerBBCB792.1237.1 (1.68)180.8 (1.00)Screamer-killer ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
CarnifexesCCCB791.3218.1 (1.67)257.8 (1.00)Carnifexes ×2, Auto-equip, Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
The Red TerrorAASB740.5168.0 (1.37)236.2 (2.30)The Red Terror ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Tyranid Warriors with Melee Bio-WeaponsBBAB712.8139.9 (1.22)137.2 (1.00)Tyranid Warriors with Melee Bio-Weapons ×6, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Broodlord–AAB705.5195.7 (1.46)99.9 (1.00)Broodlord ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
HierophantDC–B698.9167.9 (2.36)300.7 (1.00)Hierophant ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Barbgaunts–CBB698.9157.3 (0.92)168.2 (1.00)Barbgaunts ×10, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Tyranid Prime with Lash WhipCABC691.2196.5 (1.36)88.2 (1.00)Tyranid Prime with Lash Whip ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Genestealers–AAC649.4197.1 (1.20)150.3 (1.00)Genestealers ×10, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Toxicrene–––C646.4151.5 (1.05)249.0 (1.00)Toxicrene ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Tyrant GuardBBAC643.964.6 (1.18)375.8 (1.00)Tyrant Guard ×6, Auto-equip, Subterranean Assault
VenomthropesBDBC635.686.7 (0.89)217.3 (1.00)Venomthropes ×6, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Swarming Instincts)
BiovoresSSSC574.376.3 (1.11)173.2 (1.00)Biovores ×3, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Ripper SwarmsBCBC573.7189.9 (2.40)113.7 (1.00)Ripper Swarms ×3, Auto-equip, Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
RavenersSBAC561.7183.6 (1.55)132.4 (1.00)Raveners ×5, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
NeurotyrantA––C529.078.0 (0.95)148.9 (1.00)Neurotyrant ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
HarridanDCCC529.0163.6 (2.41)182.4 (1.00)Harridan ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Hive CroneD––C517.4145.1 (1.56)206.5 (1.00)Hive Crone ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
TyrannocyteC––C503.4115.7 (1.24)206.3 (1.00)Tyrannocyte ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Gargoyles–BBC493.879.1 (1.23)99.1 (1.00)Gargoyles ×20, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Winged Tyranid Prime–BBD464.9117.3 (0.95)79.7 (1.00)Winged Tyranid Prime ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
MawlocBBCD462.490.8 (1.00)207.7 (1.00)Mawloc ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Subterranean Assault
Parasite of MortrexBBCD431.169.1 (0.77)81.7 (1.00)Parasite of Mortrex ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Swarming Instincts)
HarpyD––D391.466.6 (1.10)189.8 (1.00)Harpy ×1, Auto-equip, Subterranean Assault
SporocystDDCD373.960.9 (1.37)130.6 (1.00)Sporocyst ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Invasion Fleet (Hyper-Aggression)
Mucolid SporesD–DD84.10.0 (2.77)54.0 (1.00)Mucolid Spores ×1, datasheet wargear (no choices), Ambush Predators or 8 others
Spore MinesDDDD33.30.0 (2.77)19.1 (1.00)Spore Mines ×3, datasheet wargear (no choices), Ambush Predators or 8 others

The other three, in brief