16 armies, 618 graded units, 341 variables; units held out 5 × 5 folds; 2 scrambles.
The armies:
| Army | Lists | Units | Graded | Ceiling | Ledger in sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyranids | auspex, hivemind, second, maelstrom, astrategas | 52 | 52 | 88.5% | 73.3% |
| Space Marines | auspexFull, tobias | 84 | 84 | 91.0% | 60.4% |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | belisariusPaul | 34 | 32 | – | 68.0% |
| Agents of the Imperium | varik | 29 | 26 | – | 44.8% |
| Astra Militarum | auspex | 72 | 61 | – | 66.0% |
| Blood Angels | grimdarkChronicle | 20 | 19 | – | 54.0% |
| Dark Angels | tacticalrock | 93 | 93 | – | 54.8% |
| Death Guard | disgustinglyResilient | 36 | 36 | – | 47.1% |
| Drukhari | deployOnTheLine | 37 | 24 | – | 46.1% |
| Emperor's Children | joys | 23 | 23 | – | 56.5% |
| Genestealer Cults | rey, vonCarmian | 90 | 24 | 84.9% | 68.8% |
| Leagues of Votann | list2025, discussion | 22 | 20 | 59.3% | 61.0% |
| Orks | spruesandbrews | 55 | 45 | – | 70.0% |
| Space Wolves | artOfWar | 21 | 21 | – | 46.9% |
| Thousand Sons | redundantRolling | 35 | 28 | – | 45.6% |
| World Eaters | redPath, tacticalSugar, exalted | 30 | 30 | 89.3% | 61.5% |
The headline (pairwise against each army's consensus; pooled: every within-army pair once; army mean: the 16 armies equal):
| Model | Leave one army out: pooled | army mean | Tyranids | Space Marines | vs lists (pooled) | Units held out: pooled (± SE) | Tyranids | Scrambled, left out: pooled (SD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) the ledger as it is | 60.0% | 57.8% | 73.3% | 60.4% | 62.3% | 60.3% ± 0.2 | 73.2% | 49.1% (0.2) |
| (a1) the ledger re-fitted | 59.9% | 57.8% | 73.2% | 60.4% | 62.2% | 60.1% ± 0.2 | 72.9% | 49.4% (0.2) |
| (b) linear, every variable | 62.3% | 61.7% | 66.0% | 65.6% | 61.9% | 64.7% ± 0.5 | 69.4% | 47.8% (1.7) |
| (b2) linear, core 25 | 58.6% | 57.7% | 69.5% | 58.6% | 59.4% | 60.9% ± 0.4 | 68.7% | 48.1% (0.8) |
| (c) interactions (kernel) | 66.3% | 62.7% | 64.8% | 69.4% | 64.5% | 68.0% ± 0.8 | 71.3% | 49.3% (0.6) |
| (d) boosted trees | 64.8% | 61.8% | 64.8% | 66.5% | 63.9% | 67.1% ± 0.8 | 67.1% | 48.8% (0.4) |
| (e) neighbours | 65.4% | 58.6% | 57.7% | 71.2% | 62.9% | 68.4% ± 1.0 | 66.1% | 50.0% (0.7) |
Ceiling (each list against the mean of the army's other lists; 5 armies with 2+ lists): Tyranids 88.5%, Space Marines 91.0%, Genestealer Cults 84.9%, Leagues of Votann 59.3%, World Eaters 89.3%.
Leave one army out, per army (pairwise against the consensus):
| Army | Graded | Ceiling | a | a1 | b | b2 | c | d | e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyranids | 52 | 88.5% | 73.3% | 73.2% | 66.0% | 69.5% | 64.8% | 64.8% | 57.7% |
| Space Marines | 84 | 91.0% | 60.4% | 60.4% | 65.6% | 58.6% | 69.4% | 66.5% | 71.2% |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 32 | – | 68.0% | 68.0% | 52.6% | 50.6% | 53.5% | 58.2% | 42.8% |
| Agents of the Imperium | 26 | – | 44.8% | 44.8% | 56.5% | 47.5% | 57.0% | 55.6% | 52.0% |
| Astra Militarum | 61 | – | 66.0% | 66.0% | 56.9% | 64.6% | 63.4% | 67.2% | 62.4% |
| Blood Angels | 19 | – | 54.0% | 54.0% | 63.7% | 53.2% | 61.3% | 62.1% | 46.0% |
| Dark Angels | 93 | – | 54.8% | 54.8% | 61.2% | 54.0% | 70.0% | 66.0% | 72.7% |
| Death Guard | 36 | – | 47.1% | 47.1% | 52.5% | 51.3% | 52.9% | 55.5% | 56.9% |
| Drukhari | 24 | – | 46.1% | 46.1% | 65.2% | 55.2% | 63.5% | 60.0% | 68.3% |
| Emperor's Children | 23 | – | 56.5% | 56.5% | 64.9% | 56.5% | 64.4% | 57.6% | 61.3% |
| Genestealer Cults | 24 | 84.9% | 68.8% | 68.8% | 57.1% | 59.2% | 59.6% | 66.3% | 49.2% |
| Leagues of Votann | 20 | 59.3% | 61.0% | 61.0% | 59.1% | 57.1% | 57.1% | 64.9% | 54.5% |
| Orks | 45 | – | 70.0% | 70.0% | 65.3% | 70.5% | 68.3% | 69.6% | 62.0% |
| Space Wolves | 21 | – | 46.9% | 46.9% | 61.9% | 66.9% | 58.1% | 46.9% | 51.2% |
| Thousand Sons | 28 | – | 45.6% | 45.6% | 77.0% | 53.1% | 77.0% | 69.6% | 67.6% |
| World Eaters | 30 | 89.3% | 61.5% | 61.5% | 61.5% | 54.8% | 63.0% | 58.3% | 61.0% |
The Space Marine family left out together (each of the four scored with all four out of the training; the main run's figure in brackets):
| Army | a | a1 | b | b2 | c | d | e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Marines | 60.4% (60.4%) | 60.4% (60.4%) | 57.4% (65.6%) | 51.9% (58.6%) | 57.3% (69.4%) | 59.9% (66.5%) | 58.9% (71.2%) |
| Blood Angels | 54.0% (54.0%) | 54.0% (54.0%) | 50.0% (63.7%) | 58.1% (53.2%) | 54.0% (61.3%) | 53.2% (62.1%) | 58.9% (46.0%) |
| Dark Angels | 54.8% (54.8%) | 54.8% (54.8%) | 50.4% (61.2%) | 47.1% (54.0%) | 50.9% (70.0%) | 48.8% (66.0%) | 57.0% (72.7%) |
| Space Wolves | 46.9% (46.9%) | 46.9% (46.9%) | 65.6% (61.9%) | 68.8% (66.9%) | 56.9% (58.1%) | 48.1% (46.9%) | 49.4% (51.2%) |
| pooled over the four | 57.1% | 57.1% | 53.8% | 49.9% | 53.9% | 53.8% | 57.7% |
Units held out within armies, per army:
| Army | a | a1 | b | b2 | c | d | e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyranids | 73.2% | 72.9% | 69.4% | 68.7% | 71.3% | 67.1% | 66.1% |
| Space Marines | 61.1% | 60.9% | 64.0% | 58.3% | 68.3% | 67.6% | 71.9% |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 70.1% | 69.8% | 60.2% | 56.3% | 60.2% | 64.4% | 55.3% |
| Agents of the Imperium | 43.3% | 43.4% | 54.4% | 51.9% | 54.0% | 45.2% | 42.4% |
| Astra Militarum | 66.5% | 66.4% | 71.6% | 74.8% | 72.9% | 78.8% | 78.2% |
| Blood Angels | 50.3% | 50.3% | 67.5% | 68.6% | 68.5% | 68.7% | 55.8% |
| Dark Angels | 54.9% | 54.8% | 63.1% | 56.7% | 68.4% | 67.6% | 69.8% |
| Death Guard | 46.8% | 46.6% | 52.8% | 52.2% | 53.1% | 56.9% | 61.8% |
| Drukhari | 49.1% | 49.1% | 68.2% | 49.7% | 73.8% | 63.2% | 79.5% |
| Emperor's Children | 53.1% | 52.3% | 62.7% | 54.4% | 64.4% | 59.1% | 63.4% |
| Genestealer Cults | 69.7% | 69.7% | 65.3% | 66.2% | 61.5% | 60.2% | 55.9% |
| Leagues of Votann | 65.4% | 65.4% | 58.2% | 56.6% | 59.8% | 66.1% | 58.0% |
| Orks | 67.9% | 67.7% | 69.8% | 69.9% | 71.0% | 62.7% | 59.2% |
| Space Wolves | 49.8% | 49.8% | 60.9% | 67.8% | 60.0% | 44.8% | 43.9% |
| Thousand Sons | 46.5% | 46.5% | 71.3% | 53.8% | 73.2% | 66.5% | 74.5% |
| World Eaters | 61.9% | 62.2% | 59.6% | 60.3% | 63.9% | 68.0% | 62.9% |
Paired, leave one army out (per-army gain in points; SE over the 16 armies; armies better; pooled gain; scrambled spread of the army-mean gain against (a1)):
| Pair | Mean gain ± SE | Armies better | Pooled gain | Scrambled SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| b − a1 | +3.9 ± 3.1 | 9 of 16 | +2.3 | 1.5 |
| b2 − a1 | −0.1 ± 2.1 | 6 of 16 | −1.4 | 2.6 |
| c − a1 | +4.9 ± 2.9 | 10 of 16 | +6.4 | 0.7 |
| d − a1 | +4.0 ± 2.2 | 10 of 16 | +4.8 | 1.7 |
| e − a1 | +0.8 ± 3.6 | 8 of 16 | +5.4 | 1.8 |
| a1 − a | −0.0 ± 0.0 | 0 of 16 | −0.0 | – |
| b − a | +3.9 ± 3.1 | 9 of 16 | +2.3 | – |
| b2 − a | −0.1 ± 2.1 | 6 of 16 | −1.4 | – |
| c − a | +4.9 ± 2.9 | 10 of 16 | +6.4 | – |
| d − a | +4.0 ± 2.2 | 10 of 16 | +4.8 | – |
| e − a | +0.8 ± 3.6 | 8 of 16 | +5.4 | – |
Settings chosen, leave one army out (most often):
- a: {} ×16
- a1: {"lam":10} ×13, {"lam":0.03} ×1, {"lam":0.01} ×1, {"lam":0.1} ×1
- b: {"kind":"ridge","lam":0.3} ×5, {"kind":"ridge","lam":0.1} ×4, {"kind":"ridge","lam":0.03} ×3, {"kind":"ridge","lam":1} ×2, {"kind":"lasso","lam":0.002} ×1
- b2: {"kind":"ridge","lam":3} ×8, {"kind":"ridge","lam":0.003} ×4, {"kind":"ridge","lam":1} ×2, {"kind":"ridge","lam":0.3} ×2
- c: {"lam":0.0003} ×9, {"lam":0.001} ×5, {"lam":0.003} ×2
- d: {"depth":2,"colsample":1,"trees":400} ×4, {"depth":3,"colsample":1,"trees":400} ×3, {"depth":2,"colsample":1,"trees":25} ×2, {"depth":3,"colsample":1,"trees":200} ×2, {"depth":3,"colsample":1,"trees":25} ×2
- e: {"k":3} ×10, {"k":5} ×2, {"k":20} ×2, {"k":30} ×1, {"k":8} ×1
Does pooling help Tyranids? Held-out pairwise on Tyranid units against their consensus:
| Model | Tyranids alone (their own folds) | From the other 15 armies only | The other 15 plus their own folds |
|---|---|---|---|
| (a) the ledger as it is | 73.2% | 73.3% | 73.2% |
| (a1) the ledger re-fitted | 71.5% | 73.2% | 72.9% |
| (b) linear, every variable | 70.7% | 66.0% | 69.4% |
| (b2) linear, core 25 | 66.5% | 69.5% | 68.7% |
| (c) interactions (kernel) | 72.1% | 64.8% | 71.3% |
| (d) boosted trees | 67.0% | 64.8% | 67.1% |
| (e) neighbours | 68.0% | 57.7% | 66.1% |
The learning curve (trained on m random armies at the model's most chosen setting, scored on the army left out; pooled / army mean):
| Model | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| c | 59.4% / 58.7% | 61.6% / 60.4% | 59.9% / 61.9% | 66.8% / 63.3% | 66.3% / 62.7% |
| a1 | 59.9% / 57.8% | 59.9% / 57.8% | 59.9% / 57.8% | 59.9% / 57.8% | 59.9% / 57.8% |
| b2 | 52.4% / 53.3% | 59.7% / 58.3% | 56.6% / 57.3% | 58.0% / 57.1% | 58.6% / 57.7% |
| d | 58.0% / 58.2% | 61.5% / 60.8% | 56.7% / 61.0% | 67.0% / 62.3% | 64.8% / 61.8% |
| a | 60.0% / 57.8% | 60.0% / 57.8% | 60.0% / 57.8% | 60.0% / 57.8% | 60.0% / 57.8% |
Permutation importance, model c (left-out army, its fit on the other 15; drop in pooled pairwise, points; armies where it drops by more than 0.5):
| Family | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|
| all T-636 additions | 8.71 | 13 |
| flags | 3.62 | 12 |
| keywords | 2.25 | 9 |
| datasheet | 2.04 | 11 |
| size | 1.72 | 10 |
| rules | 1.60 | 9 |
| loadout | 1.00 | 7 |
| weapons | 0.95 | 7 |
| killclass | 0.90 | 6 |
| ledger | 0.53 | 5 |
| weaponkw | 0.50 | 7 |
| interaction | 0.48 | 6 |
| T-632 candidate | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Threat on arrival | 0.96 | 8 |
| 2. Scarce answers (anti-monster and anti-vehicle reach) | 1.30 | 6 |
| 3. Objective bodies (Score, OC per point) | 0.43 | 6 |
| 4. Character sniping (Precision) | -0.04 | 1 |
| 5. Transports | 0.89 | 9 |
| 6. Psychic attacks and psykers | 0.12 | 4 |
| 7. Cheap reach: actions and indirect fire | 0.28 | 5 |
| 8. Value at the cheapest size | 0.51 | 9 |
| 9. Melee Soak | -0.10 | 4 |
| Variable | Family | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|---|
| rangedVeh100 | weapons | 0.55 | 8 |
| kwu_Captain | keywords | 0.52 | 3 |
| ptsAtMax | size | 0.43 | 7 |
| ptsAtMin | size | 0.39 | 6 |
| ptsCheap | datasheet | 0.36 | 5 |
| kwu_Centurion | keywords | 0.35 | 2 |
| carriedTotal | loadout | 0.34 | 7 |
| k6_heavy_infantry | killclass | 0.34 | 5 |
| lands | ledger | 0.33 | 4 |
| OC_max | size | 0.33 | 6 |
| maxA_any | loadout | 0.32 | 4 |
| lr_lone | flags | 0.30 | 5 |
| anti_character | weaponkw | 0.30 | 2 |
| kwu_Support | keywords | 0.29 | 2 |
| pts | datasheet | 0.28 | 8 |
| bestM_AP | weapons | 0.27 | 4 |
| ix_WxSave | interaction | 0.26 | 3 |
| has_loneOperative | flags | 0.26 | 5 |
| OC | datasheet | 0.25 | 5 |
| fx_aura | flags | 0.25 | 3 |
The T-636 additions alone (top 15):
| Variable | Family | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|---|
| kwu_Captain | keywords | 0.52 | 3 |
| ptsAtMax | size | 0.43 | 7 |
| ptsAtMin | size | 0.39 | 6 |
| kwu_Centurion | keywords | 0.35 | 2 |
| carriedTotal | loadout | 0.34 | 7 |
| OC_max | size | 0.33 | 6 |
| maxA_any | loadout | 0.32 | 4 |
| anti_character | weaponkw | 0.30 | 2 |
| kwu_Support | keywords | 0.29 | 2 |
| firingDeck_n | rules | 0.24 | 4 |
| formShare | size | 0.21 | 4 |
| has_firingDeck | rules | 0.20 | 4 |
| ppmAtMin | size | 0.20 | 2 |
| kwu_Terminator | keywords | 0.20 | 2 |
| ppmAtMax | size | 0.18 | 1 |
Permutation importance, model d (left-out army, its fit on the other 15; drop in pooled pairwise, points; armies where it drops by more than 0.5):
| Family | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|
| all T-636 additions | 7.33 | 13 |
| ledger | 5.11 | 11 |
| size | 3.62 | 14 |
| loadout | 2.56 | 12 |
| flags | 1.23 | 8 |
| weapons | 0.78 | 6 |
| killclass | 0.66 | 5 |
| rules | 0.34 | 8 |
| keywords | -0.08 | 6 |
| interaction | -0.27 | 2 |
| datasheet | -0.31 | 2 |
| weaponkw | -0.39 | 3 |
| T-632 candidate | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Threat on arrival | -0.10 | 3 |
| 2. Scarce answers (anti-monster and anti-vehicle reach) | 1.26 | 4 |
| 3. Objective bodies (Score, OC per point) | 0.23 | 6 |
| 4. Character sniping (Precision) | -0.01 | 2 |
| 5. Transports | 0.07 | 6 |
| 6. Psychic attacks and psykers | 0.10 | 3 |
| 7. Cheap reach: actions and indirect fire | 0.21 | 4 |
| 8. Value at the cheapest size | -0.03 | 1 |
| 9. Melee Soak | -0.06 | 0 |
| Variable | Family | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|---|
| ptsAtMax | size | 1.60 | 11 |
| c_kill | ledger | 1.28 | 12 |
| line_killMelee | ledger | 0.67 | 9 |
| rangedVeh100 | weapons | 0.61 | 6 |
| lfx_effects | flags | 0.58 | 6 |
| ptsAtMin | size | 0.57 | 10 |
| dsRanged | loadout | 0.57 | 10 |
| shortRanged | loadout | 0.50 | 4 |
| has_loneOperative | flags | 0.48 | 5 |
| sizeRatio | size | 0.47 | 5 |
| dsProfiles | loadout | 0.40 | 2 |
| dsWeapons | loadout | 0.38 | 4 |
| maxAP_any | loadout | 0.36 | 5 |
| carriedTotal | loadout | 0.30 | 9 |
| lands | ledger | 0.30 | 4 |
| formShare | size | 0.29 | 6 |
| k6_heavy_infantry | killclass | 0.28 | 3 |
| ppmAtMin | size | 0.26 | 3 |
| meleeChaff100 | weapons | 0.26 | 4 |
| kwu_Terminator | keywords | 0.25 | 1 |
The T-636 additions alone (top 15):
| Variable | Family | Drop | Armies |
|---|---|---|---|
| ptsAtMax | size | 1.60 | 11 |
| ptsAtMin | size | 0.57 | 10 |
| dsRanged | loadout | 0.57 | 10 |
| shortRanged | loadout | 0.50 | 4 |
| sizeRatio | size | 0.47 | 5 |
| dsProfiles | loadout | 0.40 | 2 |
| dsWeapons | loadout | 0.38 | 4 |
| maxAP_any | loadout | 0.36 | 5 |
| carriedTotal | loadout | 0.30 | 9 |
| formShare | size | 0.29 | 6 |
| ppmAtMin | size | 0.26 | 3 |
| kwu_Terminator | keywords | 0.25 | 1 |
| carriedDistinct | loadout | 0.21 | 5 |
| kwu_Tacticus | keywords | 0.20 | 2 |
| abilitiesOwn | rules | 0.15 | 4 |
Each variable alone, within army (share of within-army consensus pairs it orders the same way, ties half; armies with Spearman above +0.1 / below −0.1):
| Variable | Family | Concordance | Armies + | Armies − |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| c_kill | ledger | 60.1% | 11 | 0 |
| value | ledger | 60.0% | 10 | 2 |
| valueCheap | ledger | 59.6% | 10 | 1 |
| k6_heavy_infantry | killclass | 58.8% | 10 | 0 |
| k6_cavalry_and_beasts | killclass | 58.6% | 11 | 1 |
| carriedTotal | loadout | 58.5% | 8 | 4 |
| ix_killxSoak | interaction | 58.1% | 8 | 4 |
| ptsAtMax | size | 57.7% | 9 | 1 |
| c_hold | ledger | 57.1% | 8 | 3 |
| lands | ledger | 56.7% | 8 | 4 |
| ix_bodiesxOC | interaction | 56.7% | 9 | 5 |
| pts | datasheet | 56.5% | 10 | 2 |
| M | datasheet | 56.4% | 7 | 4 |
| k6_light_vehicle | killclass | 56.3% | 8 | 2 |
| rangedMeq100 | weapons | 56.1% | 7 | 7 |
| OC_max | size | 56.0% | 8 | 4 |
| OC | datasheet | 56.0% | 8 | 4 |
| carriedDistinct | loadout | 56.0% | 7 | 6 |
| ptsCheap | datasheet | 55.7% | 10 | 1 |
| ptsAtMin | size | 55.7% | 10 | 1 |
| rangedVeh100 | weapons | 55.5% | 7 | 6 |
| rangedChaff100 | weapons | 55.3% | 5 | 7 |
| line_killRanged | ledger | 54.9% | 7 | 7 |
| defaultWeapons | loadout | 54.8% | 7 | 4 |
| k6_character | killclass | 54.6% | 5 | 3 |
| ledByCount | rules | 54.6% | 6 | 3 |
| k6_elite_infantry | killclass | 54.5% | 6 | 2 |
| meleeChaff100 | weapons | 54.5% | 7 | 1 |
| rangedAttacks100 | weapons | 54.4% | 5 | 8 |
| c_score | ledger | 54.3% | 8 | 4 |
The T-636 additions alone, within army (top 20 by distance from 50%):
| Variable | Family | Concordance | Armies + | Armies − |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| carriedTotal | loadout | 58.5% | 8 | 4 |
| ptsAtMax | size | 57.7% | 9 | 1 |
| OC_max | size | 56.0% | 8 | 4 |
| carriedDistinct | loadout | 56.0% | 7 | 6 |
| ptsAtMin | size | 55.7% | 10 | 1 |
| defaultWeapons | loadout | 54.8% | 7 | 4 |
| ledByCount | rules | 54.6% | 6 | 3 |
| sizeMin | size | 54.2% | 6 | 3 |
| carriedRanged | loadout | 54.1% | 6 | 8 |
| sizeMax | size | 54.0% | 6 | 3 |
| maxAP_any | loadout | 54.0% | 6 | 4 |
| sizeRatio | size | 53.9% | 9 | 1 |
| sizeSteps | size | 53.7% | 9 | 2 |
| bestWS | loadout | 53.6% | 10 | 2 |
| carriedMelee | loadout | 53.4% | 9 | 3 |
| minRange | loadout | 46.7% | 2 | 9 |
| modelProfiles | size | 53.3% | 6 | 4 |
| dsMultiProfile | loadout | 53.2% | 6 | 1 |
| kwu_Grenades | keywords | 53.0% | 8 | 3 |
| dsProfiles | loadout | 53.0% | 7 | 6 |
T-632's candidates, their variables alone:
- 1. Threat on arrival: arrives 54.1% (+9/−2); has_deepStrike 52.6% (+7/−3); has_scouts 50.3% (+3/−2); has_infiltrators 51.5% (+6/−2); fx_arrival 50.9% (+6/−2); kw_is_burrowers 50.4% (+1/−0); kw_is_vanguard 50.4% (+1/−0); ix_arrivexMelee 54.3% (+9/−2); scouts_inches 50.3% (+3/−1)
- 2. Scarce answers (anti-monster and anti-vehicle reach): k6_monster 54.3% (+6/−3); k6_heavy_vehicle 52.3% (+7/−4); k6_light_vehicle 56.3% (+8/−2); rangedVeh100 55.5% (+7/−6); meleeVeh100 52.3% (+8/−2); kw_heavy 51.8% (+5/−3); kw_melta 51.9% (+6/−2); kw_anti 48.5% (+3/−7); scarcity 53.1% (+8/−1); anti_vehicle 49.0% (+4/−3); anti_monster 50.3% (+4/−0); wk_lance 50.1% (+4/−2); wk_meltaN 51.9% (+6/−2)
- 3. Objective bodies (Score, OC per point): c_score 54.3% (+8/−4); ocPer100 53.7% (+8/−5); OC 56.0% (+8/−4); ix_bodiesxOC 56.7% (+9/−5); kw_is_battleline 51.0% (+8/−4)
- 4. Character sniping (Precision): kw_precision 49.7% (+7/−4); k6_character 54.6% (+5/−3)
- 5. Transports: kw_is_transport 48.8% (+1/−6); kwu_Transport 48.8% (+1/−6); kwu_Dedicated_Transport 48.8% (+3/−6); transportCapacity 48.9% (+1/−6); capacityPer100 48.6% (+1/−5); has_firingDeck 50.0% (+4/−4); firingDeck_n 50.0% (+4/−4)
- 6. Psychic attacks and psykers: kw_psychic 51.8% (+6/−3); kw_is_psyker 52.1% (+7/−3)
- 7. Cheap reach: actions and indirect fire: kw_indirect 49.2% (+2/−3); c_actions 47.2% (+4/−7); ptsCheap 55.7% (+10/−1)
- 8. Value at the cheapest size: valueCheap 59.6% (+10/−1); ptsCheap 55.7% (+10/−1); modelsCheap 54.2% (+6/−3)
- 9. Melee Soak: soakFight 49.0% (+2/−8)
The trees on all 16 armies (depth 3, 100 trees; share of split gain; median threshold in SDs within the army):
- c_kill: 7.4% of the gain, threshold ~-0.02 SD, 7 splits
- ptsAtMax: 6.0% of the gain, threshold ~-0.78 SD, 15 splits
- line_killMelee: 4.9% of the gain, threshold ~-1.44 SD, 6 splits
- OC_max: 4.1% of the gain, threshold ~-1.17 SD, 3 splits
- c_score: 3.8% of the gain, threshold ~-1.20 SD, 4 splits
- choiceEntries: 3.7% of the gain, threshold ~-0.19 SD, 8 splits
- ptsAtMin: 3.0% of the gain, threshold ~-1.05 SD, 11 splits
- dsRanged: 2.8% of the gain, threshold ~1.19 SD, 12 splits
- carriedTotal: 2.4% of the gain, threshold ~-0.64 SD, 8 splits
- kw_is_fly: 2.0% of the gain, threshold ~2.30 SD, 11 splits
- kw_devastating: 1.9% of the gain, threshold ~1.20 SD, 12 splits
- has_loneOperative: 1.7% of the gain, threshold ~3.43 SD, 9 splits
- maxAP_any: 1.7% of the gain, threshold ~1.79 SD, 10 splits
- dsWeapons: 1.6% of the gain, threshold ~1.42 SD, 12 splits
- c_actions: 1.6% of the gain, threshold ~-1.85 SD, 11 splits
Interactions (one split under the other, share of gain):
- c_kill × ptsAtMax: 2.7%
- OC_max × c_kill: 2.3%
- carriedTotal × line_killMelee: 2.1%
- c_score × ptsAtMax: 1.9%
- choiceEntries × ptsAtMin: 1.6%
- choiceEntries × ptsAtMax: 1.6%
- carriedTotal × dsRanged: 1.4%
- kw_is_fly × ptsAtMin: 1.4%
- line_killMelee × ptsAtMax: 1.3%
- c_kill × line_killMelee: 1.0%
- dsRanged × maxAP_any: 0.9%
- kw_devastating × kw_is_psyker: 0.8%
Partial dependence (letters, consensus centred within army; biggest step in SDs within the army):
- c_kill: range 0.33; biggest step +0.31 between -0.05 and 0.08
- ptsAtMax: range 0.38; biggest step +0.18 between -0.80 and -0.45
- line_killMelee: range 0.48; biggest step +0.48 between -3.72 and -1.11
- OC_max: range 0.29; biggest step +0.29 between -2.02 and -0.73
- c_score: range 0.39; biggest step +0.39 between -3.38 and -0.72
- choiceEntries: range 0.28; biggest step -0.17 between -1.30 and -0.93
- ptsAtMin: range 0.31; biggest step +0.19 between -1.15 and -0.75
- dsRanged: range 0.53; biggest step -0.11 between 1.82 and 2.89
- carriedTotal: range 0.24; biggest step +0.20 between -0.94 and -0.44
- kw_is_fly: range 0.31; biggest step -0.30 between 2.18 and 2.46
Missed by every flexible model the same way, leaving the army out (mean predicted letter minus consensus; the ledger's beside it):
Rated higher by the reviewers than any model gives:
| Unit | Army | Consensus (letters) | Models | Ledger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miasmic Malignifier | Death Guard | 5 (S) | -4 | -4 |
| Suppressor Squad | Dark Angels | 5 (S) | -3.8 | -3 |
| Stormraven Gunship | Dark Angels | 4 (A) | -3.8 | -4 |
| Venom | Drukhari | 5 (S) | -3.4 | -5 |
| Biovores | Tyranids | 5 (S/S/S/S/S) | -3.227 | -0.6 |
| Librarian in Phobos Armour | Dark Angels | 5 (S) | -3.2 | -4 |
| Skitarii Marshal | Adeptus Mechanicus | 4 (A) | -3 | -4 |
| Chaos Rhino | Thousand Sons | 5 (S) | -3 | -4 |
| Navigator | Agents of the Imperium | 5 (S) | -2.8 | -3 |
| Lieutenant in Phobos Armour | Dark Angels | 3 (B) | -2.8 | -2 |
Rated lower by the reviewers than every model gives:
| Unit | Army | Consensus (letters) | Models | Ledger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pteraxii Skystalkers | Adeptus Mechanicus | 1 (D) | +3.4 | 0 |
| Company Heroes | Dark Angels | 0 (F) | +3.4 | +3 |
| Tzaangor Enlightened | Thousand Sons | 1 (D) | +3.4 | +4 |
| Heavy Intercessor Squad | Dark Angels | 1 (D) | +3 | +3 |
| Serberys Sulphurhounds | Adeptus Mechanicus | 0 (F) | +2.8 | +4 |
| Iron Priest | Space Wolves | 0 (F) | +2.8 | +5 |
| Maulerfiend | Thousand Sons | 2 (C) | +2.8 | +3 |
| Primaris Psyker | Astra Militarum | 2 (C) | +2.6 | +1 |
| Hierophant | Tyranids | 1.333 (D/C/–/D/–) | +2.583 | +0.667 |
| Fulgurite Electro-Priests | Adeptus Mechanicus | 1 (D) | +2.4 | +1 |
Missed the same way, per army (higher / lower / graded): Tyranids 4/5/52, Space Marines 18/14/84, Adeptus Mechanicus 7/7/32, Agents of the Imperium 4/3/26, Astra Militarum 1/7/61, Blood Angels 4/2/19, Dark Angels 15/13/93, Death Guard 5/7/36, Drukhari 2/5/24, Emperor's Children 4/3/23, Genestealer Cults 5/7/24, Leagues of Votann 2/2/20, Orks 7/4/45, Space Wolves 2/3/21, Thousand Sons 3/5/28, World Eaters 8/8/30
Traits of the 30 most under-rated (mean SD within army): ix_killxSoak -0.69, ix_durHeavy100 -0.68, c_hold -0.65, c_kill -0.64, ptsAtMax -0.62, value -0.58, valueCheap -0.56, pts -0.56, OC_max -0.56, OC -0.55
Traits of the 30 most over-rated: kw_psychic 0.60, kw_is_psyker 0.56, k6_heavy_infantry 0.47, bestM_D 0.43, rulesCount -0.38, bestR_A 0.35, rangedChaff100 0.34, value 0.32, c_kill 0.32, meleeVeh100 0.31
Run: 1892 s.