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T-635 tables (node tools/diagnose.js --pooled)

From reports/tiers/2026-10-04-variables-pooled-diagnosis-tables.md , rendered when the site is built.

16 armies, 618 graded units, 341 variables; units held out 5 × 5 folds; 2 scrambles.

The armies:

ArmyListsUnitsGradedCeilingLedger in sample
Tyranidsauspex, hivemind, second, maelstrom, astrategas525288.5%73.3%
Space MarinesauspexFull, tobias848491.0%60.4%
Adeptus MechanicusbelisariusPaul3432–68.0%
Agents of the Imperiumvarik2926–44.8%
Astra Militarumauspex7261–66.0%
Blood AngelsgrimdarkChronicle2019–54.0%
Dark Angelstacticalrock9393–54.8%
Death GuarddisgustinglyResilient3636–47.1%
DrukharideployOnTheLine3724–46.1%
Emperor's Childrenjoys2323–56.5%
Genestealer Cultsrey, vonCarmian902484.9%68.8%
Leagues of Votannlist2025, discussion222059.3%61.0%
Orksspruesandbrews5545–70.0%
Space WolvesartOfWar2121–46.9%
Thousand SonsredundantRolling3528–45.6%
World EatersredPath, tacticalSugar, exalted303089.3%61.5%

The headline (pairwise against each army's consensus; pooled: every within-army pair once; army mean: the 16 armies equal):

ModelLeave one army out: pooledarmy meanTyranidsSpace Marinesvs lists (pooled)Units held out: pooled (± SE)TyranidsScrambled, left out: pooled (SD)
(a) the ledger as it is60.0%57.8%73.3%60.4%62.3%60.3% ± 0.273.2%49.1% (0.2)
(a1) the ledger re-fitted59.9%57.8%73.2%60.4%62.2%60.1% ± 0.272.9%49.4% (0.2)
(b) linear, every variable62.3%61.7%66.0%65.6%61.9%64.7% ± 0.569.4%47.8% (1.7)
(b2) linear, core 2558.6%57.7%69.5%58.6%59.4%60.9% ± 0.468.7%48.1% (0.8)
(c) interactions (kernel)66.3%62.7%64.8%69.4%64.5%68.0% ± 0.871.3%49.3% (0.6)
(d) boosted trees64.8%61.8%64.8%66.5%63.9%67.1% ± 0.867.1%48.8% (0.4)
(e) neighbours65.4%58.6%57.7%71.2%62.9%68.4% ± 1.066.1%50.0% (0.7)

Ceiling (each list against the mean of the army's other lists; 5 armies with 2+ lists): Tyranids 88.5%, Space Marines 91.0%, Genestealer Cults 84.9%, Leagues of Votann 59.3%, World Eaters 89.3%.

Leave one army out, per army (pairwise against the consensus):

ArmyGradedCeilingaa1bb2cde
Tyranids5288.5%73.3%73.2%66.0%69.5%64.8%64.8%57.7%
Space Marines8491.0%60.4%60.4%65.6%58.6%69.4%66.5%71.2%
Adeptus Mechanicus32–68.0%68.0%52.6%50.6%53.5%58.2%42.8%
Agents of the Imperium26–44.8%44.8%56.5%47.5%57.0%55.6%52.0%
Astra Militarum61–66.0%66.0%56.9%64.6%63.4%67.2%62.4%
Blood Angels19–54.0%54.0%63.7%53.2%61.3%62.1%46.0%
Dark Angels93–54.8%54.8%61.2%54.0%70.0%66.0%72.7%
Death Guard36–47.1%47.1%52.5%51.3%52.9%55.5%56.9%
Drukhari24–46.1%46.1%65.2%55.2%63.5%60.0%68.3%
Emperor's Children23–56.5%56.5%64.9%56.5%64.4%57.6%61.3%
Genestealer Cults2484.9%68.8%68.8%57.1%59.2%59.6%66.3%49.2%
Leagues of Votann2059.3%61.0%61.0%59.1%57.1%57.1%64.9%54.5%
Orks45–70.0%70.0%65.3%70.5%68.3%69.6%62.0%
Space Wolves21–46.9%46.9%61.9%66.9%58.1%46.9%51.2%
Thousand Sons28–45.6%45.6%77.0%53.1%77.0%69.6%67.6%
World Eaters3089.3%61.5%61.5%61.5%54.8%63.0%58.3%61.0%

The Space Marine family left out together (each of the four scored with all four out of the training; the main run's figure in brackets):

Armyaa1bb2cde
Space Marines60.4% (60.4%)60.4% (60.4%)57.4% (65.6%)51.9% (58.6%)57.3% (69.4%)59.9% (66.5%)58.9% (71.2%)
Blood Angels54.0% (54.0%)54.0% (54.0%)50.0% (63.7%)58.1% (53.2%)54.0% (61.3%)53.2% (62.1%)58.9% (46.0%)
Dark Angels54.8% (54.8%)54.8% (54.8%)50.4% (61.2%)47.1% (54.0%)50.9% (70.0%)48.8% (66.0%)57.0% (72.7%)
Space Wolves46.9% (46.9%)46.9% (46.9%)65.6% (61.9%)68.8% (66.9%)56.9% (58.1%)48.1% (46.9%)49.4% (51.2%)
pooled over the four57.1%57.1%53.8%49.9%53.9%53.8%57.7%

Units held out within armies, per army:

Armyaa1bb2cde
Tyranids73.2%72.9%69.4%68.7%71.3%67.1%66.1%
Space Marines61.1%60.9%64.0%58.3%68.3%67.6%71.9%
Adeptus Mechanicus70.1%69.8%60.2%56.3%60.2%64.4%55.3%
Agents of the Imperium43.3%43.4%54.4%51.9%54.0%45.2%42.4%
Astra Militarum66.5%66.4%71.6%74.8%72.9%78.8%78.2%
Blood Angels50.3%50.3%67.5%68.6%68.5%68.7%55.8%
Dark Angels54.9%54.8%63.1%56.7%68.4%67.6%69.8%
Death Guard46.8%46.6%52.8%52.2%53.1%56.9%61.8%
Drukhari49.1%49.1%68.2%49.7%73.8%63.2%79.5%
Emperor's Children53.1%52.3%62.7%54.4%64.4%59.1%63.4%
Genestealer Cults69.7%69.7%65.3%66.2%61.5%60.2%55.9%
Leagues of Votann65.4%65.4%58.2%56.6%59.8%66.1%58.0%
Orks67.9%67.7%69.8%69.9%71.0%62.7%59.2%
Space Wolves49.8%49.8%60.9%67.8%60.0%44.8%43.9%
Thousand Sons46.5%46.5%71.3%53.8%73.2%66.5%74.5%
World Eaters61.9%62.2%59.6%60.3%63.9%68.0%62.9%

Paired, leave one army out (per-army gain in points; SE over the 16 armies; armies better; pooled gain; scrambled spread of the army-mean gain against (a1)):

PairMean gain ± SEArmies betterPooled gainScrambled SD
b − a1+3.9 ± 3.19 of 16+2.31.5
b2 − a1−0.1 ± 2.16 of 16−1.42.6
c − a1+4.9 ± 2.910 of 16+6.40.7
d − a1+4.0 ± 2.210 of 16+4.81.7
e − a1+0.8 ± 3.68 of 16+5.41.8
a1 − a−0.0 ± 0.00 of 16−0.0–
b − a+3.9 ± 3.19 of 16+2.3–
b2 − a−0.1 ± 2.16 of 16−1.4–
c − a+4.9 ± 2.910 of 16+6.4–
d − a+4.0 ± 2.210 of 16+4.8–
e − a+0.8 ± 3.68 of 16+5.4–

Settings chosen, leave one army out (most often):

Does pooling help Tyranids? Held-out pairwise on Tyranid units against their consensus:

ModelTyranids alone (their own folds)From the other 15 armies onlyThe other 15 plus their own folds
(a) the ledger as it is73.2%73.3%73.2%
(a1) the ledger re-fitted71.5%73.2%72.9%
(b) linear, every variable70.7%66.0%69.4%
(b2) linear, core 2566.5%69.5%68.7%
(c) interactions (kernel)72.1%64.8%71.3%
(d) boosted trees67.0%64.8%67.1%
(e) neighbours68.0%57.7%66.1%

The learning curve (trained on m random armies at the model's most chosen setting, scored on the army left out; pooled / army mean):

Model3691215
c59.4% / 58.7%61.6% / 60.4%59.9% / 61.9%66.8% / 63.3%66.3% / 62.7%
a159.9% / 57.8%59.9% / 57.8%59.9% / 57.8%59.9% / 57.8%59.9% / 57.8%
b252.4% / 53.3%59.7% / 58.3%56.6% / 57.3%58.0% / 57.1%58.6% / 57.7%
d58.0% / 58.2%61.5% / 60.8%56.7% / 61.0%67.0% / 62.3%64.8% / 61.8%
a60.0% / 57.8%60.0% / 57.8%60.0% / 57.8%60.0% / 57.8%60.0% / 57.8%

Permutation importance, model c (left-out army, its fit on the other 15; drop in pooled pairwise, points; armies where it drops by more than 0.5):

FamilyDropArmies
all T-636 additions8.7113
flags3.6212
keywords2.259
datasheet2.0411
size1.7210
rules1.609
loadout1.007
weapons0.957
killclass0.906
ledger0.535
weaponkw0.507
interaction0.486
T-632 candidateDropArmies
1. Threat on arrival0.968
2. Scarce answers (anti-monster and anti-vehicle reach)1.306
3. Objective bodies (Score, OC per point)0.436
4. Character sniping (Precision)-0.041
5. Transports0.899
6. Psychic attacks and psykers0.124
7. Cheap reach: actions and indirect fire0.285
8. Value at the cheapest size0.519
9. Melee Soak-0.104
VariableFamilyDropArmies
rangedVeh100weapons0.558
kwu_Captainkeywords0.523
ptsAtMaxsize0.437
ptsAtMinsize0.396
ptsCheapdatasheet0.365
kwu_Centurionkeywords0.352
carriedTotalloadout0.347
k6_heavy_infantrykillclass0.345
landsledger0.334
OC_maxsize0.336
maxA_anyloadout0.324
lr_loneflags0.305
anti_characterweaponkw0.302
kwu_Supportkeywords0.292
ptsdatasheet0.288
bestM_APweapons0.274
ix_WxSaveinteraction0.263
has_loneOperativeflags0.265
OCdatasheet0.255
fx_auraflags0.253

The T-636 additions alone (top 15):

VariableFamilyDropArmies
kwu_Captainkeywords0.523
ptsAtMaxsize0.437
ptsAtMinsize0.396
kwu_Centurionkeywords0.352
carriedTotalloadout0.347
OC_maxsize0.336
maxA_anyloadout0.324
anti_characterweaponkw0.302
kwu_Supportkeywords0.292
firingDeck_nrules0.244
formSharesize0.214
has_firingDeckrules0.204
ppmAtMinsize0.202
kwu_Terminatorkeywords0.202
ppmAtMaxsize0.181

Permutation importance, model d (left-out army, its fit on the other 15; drop in pooled pairwise, points; armies where it drops by more than 0.5):

FamilyDropArmies
all T-636 additions7.3313
ledger5.1111
size3.6214
loadout2.5612
flags1.238
weapons0.786
killclass0.665
rules0.348
keywords-0.086
interaction-0.272
datasheet-0.312
weaponkw-0.393
T-632 candidateDropArmies
1. Threat on arrival-0.103
2. Scarce answers (anti-monster and anti-vehicle reach)1.264
3. Objective bodies (Score, OC per point)0.236
4. Character sniping (Precision)-0.012
5. Transports0.076
6. Psychic attacks and psykers0.103
7. Cheap reach: actions and indirect fire0.214
8. Value at the cheapest size-0.031
9. Melee Soak-0.060
VariableFamilyDropArmies
ptsAtMaxsize1.6011
c_killledger1.2812
line_killMeleeledger0.679
rangedVeh100weapons0.616
lfx_effectsflags0.586
ptsAtMinsize0.5710
dsRangedloadout0.5710
shortRangedloadout0.504
has_loneOperativeflags0.485
sizeRatiosize0.475
dsProfilesloadout0.402
dsWeaponsloadout0.384
maxAP_anyloadout0.365
carriedTotalloadout0.309
landsledger0.304
formSharesize0.296
k6_heavy_infantrykillclass0.283
ppmAtMinsize0.263
meleeChaff100weapons0.264
kwu_Terminatorkeywords0.251

The T-636 additions alone (top 15):

VariableFamilyDropArmies
ptsAtMaxsize1.6011
ptsAtMinsize0.5710
dsRangedloadout0.5710
shortRangedloadout0.504
sizeRatiosize0.475
dsProfilesloadout0.402
dsWeaponsloadout0.384
maxAP_anyloadout0.365
carriedTotalloadout0.309
formSharesize0.296
ppmAtMinsize0.263
kwu_Terminatorkeywords0.251
carriedDistinctloadout0.215
kwu_Tacticuskeywords0.202
abilitiesOwnrules0.154

Each variable alone, within army (share of within-army consensus pairs it orders the same way, ties half; armies with Spearman above +0.1 / below −0.1):

VariableFamilyConcordanceArmies +Armies −
c_killledger60.1%110
valueledger60.0%102
valueCheapledger59.6%101
k6_heavy_infantrykillclass58.8%100
k6_cavalry_and_beastskillclass58.6%111
carriedTotalloadout58.5%84
ix_killxSoakinteraction58.1%84
ptsAtMaxsize57.7%91
c_holdledger57.1%83
landsledger56.7%84
ix_bodiesxOCinteraction56.7%95
ptsdatasheet56.5%102
Mdatasheet56.4%74
k6_light_vehiclekillclass56.3%82
rangedMeq100weapons56.1%77
OC_maxsize56.0%84
OCdatasheet56.0%84
carriedDistinctloadout56.0%76
ptsCheapdatasheet55.7%101
ptsAtMinsize55.7%101
rangedVeh100weapons55.5%76
rangedChaff100weapons55.3%57
line_killRangedledger54.9%77
defaultWeaponsloadout54.8%74
k6_characterkillclass54.6%53
ledByCountrules54.6%63
k6_elite_infantrykillclass54.5%62
meleeChaff100weapons54.5%71
rangedAttacks100weapons54.4%58
c_scoreledger54.3%84

The T-636 additions alone, within army (top 20 by distance from 50%):

VariableFamilyConcordanceArmies +Armies −
carriedTotalloadout58.5%84
ptsAtMaxsize57.7%91
OC_maxsize56.0%84
carriedDistinctloadout56.0%76
ptsAtMinsize55.7%101
defaultWeaponsloadout54.8%74
ledByCountrules54.6%63
sizeMinsize54.2%63
carriedRangedloadout54.1%68
sizeMaxsize54.0%63
maxAP_anyloadout54.0%64
sizeRatiosize53.9%91
sizeStepssize53.7%92
bestWSloadout53.6%102
carriedMeleeloadout53.4%93
minRangeloadout46.7%29
modelProfilessize53.3%64
dsMultiProfileloadout53.2%61
kwu_Grenadeskeywords53.0%83
dsProfilesloadout53.0%76

T-632's candidates, their variables alone:

The trees on all 16 armies (depth 3, 100 trees; share of split gain; median threshold in SDs within the army):

Interactions (one split under the other, share of gain):

Partial dependence (letters, consensus centred within army; biggest step in SDs within the army):

Missed by every flexible model the same way, leaving the army out (mean predicted letter minus consensus; the ledger's beside it):

Rated higher by the reviewers than any model gives:

UnitArmyConsensus (letters)ModelsLedger
Miasmic MalignifierDeath Guard5 (S)-4-4
Suppressor SquadDark Angels5 (S)-3.8-3
Stormraven GunshipDark Angels4 (A)-3.8-4
VenomDrukhari5 (S)-3.4-5
BiovoresTyranids5 (S/S/S/S/S)-3.227-0.6
Librarian in Phobos ArmourDark Angels5 (S)-3.2-4
Skitarii MarshalAdeptus Mechanicus4 (A)-3-4
Chaos RhinoThousand Sons5 (S)-3-4
NavigatorAgents of the Imperium5 (S)-2.8-3
Lieutenant in Phobos ArmourDark Angels3 (B)-2.8-2

Rated lower by the reviewers than every model gives:

UnitArmyConsensus (letters)ModelsLedger
Pteraxii SkystalkersAdeptus Mechanicus1 (D)+3.40
Company HeroesDark Angels0 (F)+3.4+3
Tzaangor EnlightenedThousand Sons1 (D)+3.4+4
Heavy Intercessor SquadDark Angels1 (D)+3+3
Serberys SulphurhoundsAdeptus Mechanicus0 (F)+2.8+4
Iron PriestSpace Wolves0 (F)+2.8+5
MaulerfiendThousand Sons2 (C)+2.8+3
Primaris PsykerAstra Militarum2 (C)+2.6+1
HierophantTyranids1.333 (D/C/–/D/–)+2.583+0.667
Fulgurite Electro-PriestsAdeptus Mechanicus1 (D)+2.4+1

Missed the same way, per army (higher / lower / graded): Tyranids 4/5/52, Space Marines 18/14/84, Adeptus Mechanicus 7/7/32, Agents of the Imperium 4/3/26, Astra Militarum 1/7/61, Blood Angels 4/2/19, Dark Angels 15/13/93, Death Guard 5/7/36, Drukhari 2/5/24, Emperor's Children 4/3/23, Genestealer Cults 5/7/24, Leagues of Votann 2/2/20, Orks 7/4/45, Space Wolves 2/3/21, Thousand Sons 3/5/28, World Eaters 8/8/30

Traits of the 30 most under-rated (mean SD within army): ix_killxSoak -0.69, ix_durHeavy100 -0.68, c_hold -0.65, c_kill -0.64, ptsAtMax -0.62, value -0.58, valueCheap -0.56, pts -0.56, OC_max -0.56, OC -0.55

Traits of the 30 most over-rated: kw_psychic 0.60, kw_is_psyker 0.56, k6_heavy_infantry 0.47, bestM_D 0.43, rulesCount -0.38, bestR_A 0.35, rangedChaff100 0.34, value 0.32, c_kill 0.32, meleeVeh100 0.31

Run: 1892 s.