In plain English
The Space Marines now have the two files the Tyranids have had since 3 Oct: role scarcity (a kill into a class the army is short of killers for is worth more) and the Soak effects (time off the table, heals). Track A's scarcity and soakfx switches were already on but had nothing to read for the Marines, so they fell back.
The prediction (Space Marines up 1 to 3 points) was wrong. Scarcity lowers the Marines' agreement with their reviewers by about 4 points; the Soak effects change nothing. The Tyranids don't move. Scarcity was fitted into Track A on the Tyranids, and this is its first real test outside them: it hurts out of sample.
No re-freeze was needed, and none was made. The card asked for one, but the frozen-inputs loader treats tools/scarcity-*.json and tools/soakfx-*.json as the ledger's own live files (tools/ledger-inputs.js, LIVE), as it does the Tyranids'. The snapshot is unchanged: commit eb3590a, BSData 374f505, inputs hash 30f0056e6103, and build/units.json is untouched. That keeps the ledger on the data before the dataslate, as Jordan asked (5 Oct). A freeze at today's head would also have pulled in the newer BSData (8b91e6b), docs/ev.js (T-582), detfx.json (T-579), four panel edits and 23 later panels, and the loader refuses it anyway while docs/data/index.json names 8b91e6b.
The two files
- tools/scarcity-space-marines.json: tools/scarcity.js's formula unchanged, on docs/lab/ledger/space-marines.json (5,527 forms). At β 6: heavy infantry 2.35 (no datasheet clears the bar; 3rd-best depth 11.1 per 100), cavalry and beasts 1.44, monsters 1.32, light vehicles 0.80, elite infantry 0.51, heavy vehicles 0.50, characters 0.21, chaff 0.18. Median factor 0.379.
- tools/soakfx-space-marines.json, from a new rules file tools/soakfx-rules-space-marines.json (our own numbers, citing BSData 374f505 and Wahapedia's 11th-edition pages; no rules wording):
- Leave and come back: Guerrilla Tactics (Scout Squad) and the stratagems and enhancements that do the same all act at the end of the opponent's turn or Fight phase, so none spares an enemy turn: every form is exposed 1, no tunnels.
- Own heals (
healMultOwn): Self Repair (Rhino, 1.10); Narthecium, one non-CHARACTER model back a round while an Apothecary leads (1.08 to 1.23). 302 forms. - Healed by others (
healMultonly, not read by the page): Blessing of the Omnissiah on a VEHICLE form. - Not counted: enhancements (the forms carry none), models that strike back before removal, pre-battle redeployment.
Numbers (pairwise accuracy, %)
| Before | After | Δ [95%] | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space Marines, Track A (exam row, 2 lists) | 64.5 | 60.3 | −4.2 [−9.1, +0.7] |
| Auspex (full) / Tobias, Track A | 67 / 62 | 62 / 58 | ρ 0.374 → 0.277, 0.317 → 0.216 |
| Seven lists, Track A | 75.0 (ρ 0.575) | 73.8 (ρ 0.547) | |
| Space Marines, Track B | 62.0 | 59.0 | about −3 |
| Exam pooled, 14 armies, A / B | 59.4 / 59.4 | 59.1 / 59.2 | B against A −0.0 → +0.1 [−2.7, +2.7] |
| Tyranids, five lists, A / B | 79.3 / 77.7 | 79.3 / 77.7 | unchanged to the bit |
Taken apart: with scarcity off, Track A reads 64.5 again (the Soak effects alone: +0.0); with soakfx off it stays at 60.3, so all of the fall is scarcity. Under Track B, scarcity off gives 62.3 (Soak effects +0.3 there).
Who moves (Track A, scarcity on against off): Redemptor Dreadnought 52nd → 6th (graded A/C), Centurion Assault Squad 44th → 9th (B/C), Brutalis Dreadnought 45th → 10th (A/C), Stormhawk Interceptor 46th → 17th (C/F), Repulsor Executioner 53rd → 30th (A/A) rise; Scout Squad 27th → 48th (S/S), Suppressor Squad, Storm Speeder Hailstrike, Judiciar and Eliminator Squad fall 21 to 24 places. Heavy-infantry killers are lifted; the cheap specialists fall because their kills go into characters and chaff, which every Marine datasheet kills well.
Commands: node tools/scarcity.js --army space-marines --write, node tools/soakfx.js --army space-marines --write, node tools/ledger-merge.js --army space-marines; measured with node tools/exam.js (14 armies, paired bootstrap, 2,000 draws, seed 1) and node tools/ledgerstep.js --base <Track A or B>.
Doubts
- Scarcity pays heavy-infantry killers the reviewers don't rate, and pays a lot (2.35, with no good killer to set a bench). The characters-as-targets doubt from the Tyranid report returns: 83 of 84 datasheets clear the bar into characters, which pushes characters' scarcity down to 0.21.
- Track A's published Space Marines number (64.5) is now 60.3 and the pooled exam 59.1; the benchmark files don't change, because their sliders are the same. Whether to switch
scarcityoff (or make it a dial) is a decision for the supervisor. - Narthecium is counted at full value whenever an Apothecary leads (best case, as the Tyranids' heals); the heal rule multiplier may already credit it.