Tactical Reroll
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Screens and cheap scorers, across armies (T-675, 5 Oct)

From reports/tiers/2026-10-05-screens.md , rendered when the site is built.

The question. On Track A, Kill is most of a unit's Value, so a cheap screen's Score, Hold and Presence barely move it. The World Eaters' Jakhals are S with all three reviewers and sit at our 34th percentile. Their Flesh Hounds are A and sit at the 28th. Is "what a screen does" a missing ingredient across armies, or just in this one?

What we measured. Five quantities, each a dial (ledger.js SCREEN_KEYS, 0 = today exactly, up to 3). Each one is a worth in points Q at strength 1, and the unit's Value gains w × Q × P ÷ its points. P is the army's median reference Value per 100 points. The unit is then worth (1 + w × Q ÷ points) × its points at the median rate, so at 0.005 a cheap screen gains half a percent and at 1 it is worth about double. The constants come from design/rules-notes.md.

Held out across armies. The strength is chosen on 10 of the 15 armies and scored on the other 5, over 3 seeded splits, against Track A (pooled 59.4, Tyranids 79.3). The exam column is node tools/exam.js at strength 0.5 (trade at its pick, 0.01), with 2,000 draws.

DialPicks (3 splits)Held-out Δ, mean ± SEPick on all 15 (in sample)Exam, pooled Δ [95%, units]Tyranids ΔWorst armies at 0.5
screenArea0.1, 0.01, 0.05−0.02 ± 0.020.05 (+0.05)−1.3 [−2.4, −0.4]−1.1SW −4.3, LoV −4.0, AM −3.9
screenBlock0.05, 0.05, 0.005−0.05 ± 0.030.05 (+0.04)−1.2 [−2.5, +0.0]−1.4LoV −4.5, AM −4.7, AdMech −4.3
screenTrade0.005, 0.01, 0.01+0.15 ± 0.060.01 (+0.14)+0.1 [−0.3, +0.7] at 0.01+0.2(at 0.01: Drukhari −1.0)
screenScore0.1, 1, 0.1−0.95 ± 0.910.1 (+0.05)−0.8 [−2.0, +0.4]−0.8AM −4.2, Orks −3.8, AdMech −3.4
screenHide3, 0.35, 2−1.29 ± 0.670.35 (+0.10)– (needs Stealth on the data)+0.1LoV −3.2, SW −1.4, AM −1.4
Jointly (only trade is live)as trade+0.15trade 0.01+0.2
screenJob with area 2−2.1 in sample−8.7AM −8.2, Orks −6.9, AdMech −6.2

World Eaters' three lists (Red Path, Tactical Sugar, Exalted; one list left out, the strength picked on the other two).

SettingRP / TS / ExMeanWE held outPooled 15, in sampleTyranids
Track A62.3 / 72.2 / 68.967.859.479.3
screenTrade 0.0164.1 / 73.7 / 69.169.0−0.1 (picks 0, 0.05, 0.05)+0.1+0.2
screenArea 273.6 / 72.8 / 75.774.0+5.9 (picks 2, 3, 2)−3.3−8.3
screenBlock 1.572.5 / 71.3 / 75.173.0+4.1−3.1−5.7
screenScore 173.6 / 74.3 / 74.974.3+5.5−0.7−2.5
screenHide 0.162.7 / 71.9 / 69.167.9−0.1−0.1−0.1

Cheap units across armies. Each unit's percentile by Value among the units its army's lists grade (as tools/misses.js's ourPct) at Track A, the cross-army pick, and two World Eaters–strength settings. Letters are the army's lists in order.

Unit (army, Track A's points)LettersTrack Atrade 0.01score 1area 2
Jakhals (World Eaters, 130)S S S34347693
Flesh Hounds (World Eaters, 150)A A A28285969
Khorne Berzerkers (World Eaters, 160)A A S48455262
Gargoyles (Tyranids, 155)B B B A S12122555
Termagants (Tyranids, 110)B B C B A27275369
Hormagaunts (Tyranids, 120)S A B A S67656573
Cadian Shock Troops (Astra Militarum, 145)A80809295
Kasrkin (Astra Militarum, 105)A92909390
Gretchin (Orks, 80)B11117395
Wracks (Drukhari, 120)D57577883
Hearthkyn Warriors (Leagues of Votann, 90)C C79848484
Hernkyn Yaegirs (Leagues of Votann, 90)A –16166363
Nurglings (Death Guard, 90)A1114966
Fenrisian Wolves (Space Wolves, 75)B1010090
Daemonettes (Emperor's Children, 100)C100100100100

Read: screens are a World Eaters quirk, not a missing ingredient across armies. Board denial, blocking and a cheap scoring slot each gain the World Eaters 4 to 6 points held out, a third of the way to their reviewers' ceiling. Jakhals rise from the 34th percentile to the 76th to 93rd. The same strengths cost the pooled exam 1 to 3 points and the Tyranids 2.5 to 8. Elsewhere the cheap squads we underrate (Gargoyles, Gretchin, Yaegirs, Nurglings) are matched by cheap squads we already overrate: the Wracks (D), Hearthkyn (C), Daemonettes (C) and Cadians. The same credit lifts both groups. This is T-669's "cheap units" group again (−6 beyond our position). Within the armies, a unit's screen quantities per point have no rank correlation with its miss beyond our position (area −0.01, block −0.02, trade −0.05, score −0.03, hide +0.07). Only screenTrade held out positive: +0.15 ± 0.06 at 0.01, pooled exam +0.1 [−0.3, +0.7], Tyranids +0.2, within noise. It is on /lab/ledger/ as "Screens (T-675)", off. The other four dials and screenJob stay in code at 0. For the World Eaters they are dials worth setting (area 2 or score 1, beside T-672's modeScarcity), but only as an army-level choice. Nothing is adopted into Track A or B.

How it's done: node tools/screens.js (about 4 minutes) runs every dial alone, then the live dials jointly. Settings go through compute() as tools/exam.js scores them (Track A, tools/ledger-benchmarks/2026-10-05-step34b-baseline.json, wCarry 0; 59.4 pooled reproduced). The candidate is tools/ledger-benchmarks/2026-10-05-screens.json. The grid is 0, 0.005, 0.01, 0.02, 0.05, 0.1, 0.2, 0.35, 0.5, 0.75, 1, 1.5, 2, 3, and a tie goes to the smaller strength.