6 Oct 2026, Pacific (T-740; Jordan, 6 Oct: "if it's quick"). Frozen snapshot 8dcd24032d, inputs hash dcd477d8a78c. Tools: tools/kindlayer.js (the layer, a post step chained after the stable layer through tools/postchain.js) and tools/kindstep.js (the measurement: tools/recipestep.js's protocol over a grid of 2,916 candidates). Numbers in build/recipe/step43.json (git-ignored). The prediction and keep rule were written in reports/tiers/ledger-steps.md and committed before any score of the layer was printed. Nothing on the page or in the published benchmark moves.
In plain English
Verdict: reverted. The layer does not survive the held-out exam.
- Held out on the 15 exam armies: +0.2 points [−1.6, +1.9] over step 41. Only 7 of 15 armies don't fall (7 up, 8 down); the rule needs 9. Leave one army out gives +1.0 [−1.2, +3.0]. With Gemini at half weight, +0.3 [−1.6, +2.1].
- Fixed at the dials the folds picked most often, it gains +2.0 [−0.5, +4.4] in sample, close to the +2.2 the move check suggested. Held out, almost all of that goes. The dials that suit 10 armies don't carry to the other 5.
- Armies up (held out): Blood Angels +8.9, Death Guard +4.9, Space Marines +4.4, Orks +3.8, Thousand Sons +3.6, Dark Angels +3.3, Agents +0.9. Down: Adeptus Mechanicus −6.9, Astra Militarum −6.4, Votann −5.4, Emperor's Children −4.0, Drukhari −1.6, Genestealer Cults −1.0, World Eaters −0.5, Space Wolves −0.2.
The fitted factors (each kind dial on −0.3, 0 or +0.3, a log factor: +0.3 is ×1.35, −0.3 is ×0.74; speed is a power of Move over its kind's median, on −0.5, 0, 0.5 or 1). Counts are over the 9 training folds; the 15 leave-one-out fits are in brackets.
- Stable:
- Fly −0.3: 9 of 9 (15 of 15).
- Speed 1, the top of the grid: 9 of 9 (15 of 15).
- Epic Hero +0.3: 8 of 9 (15 of 15).
- Psyker +0.3: 7 of 9 (14 of 15).
- Split:
- Infantry: +0.3 in 4 folds, 0 in 3, −0.3 in 2 (+0.3 in 14 of 15 leave-one-out).
- Vehicle: −0.3 in 5 folds, 0 in 3, +0.3 in 1 (0 in all 15 leave-one-out).
- Monster: −0.3 in 3 folds, 0 in 4, +0.3 in 2 (0 in 14 of 15).
- Most often picked (the modal pick): Infantry +0.3, Vehicle −0.3, Fly −0.3, Epic Hero +0.3, Psyker +0.3, speed 1. It was picked in only 2 of the 9 folds. Two more picked the same without Vehicle, and the other five all differ.
- Each dial alone, fixed (in sample):
- speed 1: +1.3 [−0.6, +3.0], the most of any single dial;
- Epic Hero +0.3: +0.4; Psyker +0.3: +0.3; Vehicle −0.3: +0.3;
- Fly −0.3: −0.6, and Infantry +0.3: −0.1. These two help only together with the others.
The shuffled control (three sets of letters permuted within each army, put through the same fitting):
- Held out: +1.5, −0.1 and −1.2. The first is larger than the real gain, so the real +0.2 is within noise.
- Speed 1 is picked on shuffled letters too: in all 9 folds of seed 11 and 7 of seed 12. Fixed, it gains +0.8 on shuffled letters, against +1.3 on the real ones. So its stability across folds does not show it is signal. Ties are not the cause: 2 of 12,511 graded pairs are tied in the base.
Tyranids (never in the exam), at the modal pick: three lists 82.6 → 84.0, five lists 79.4 → 79.8, consensus 90.4 → 92.6 (583 pairs). That is better than predicted. They are not part of the keep rule.
What moves among the disputed units (at the modal pick; rank among the army's ranked units, before → after; letters in brackets):
- Death Guard engines go down, mostly as the letters want:
- Helbrute 12th → 26th (C), Plagueburst Crawler 21st → 24th (C), Foetid Bloat-drone with heavy blight launcher 7th → 21st (C): right.
- Defiler 4th → 11th (B): about right.
- Myphitic Blight-hauler 11th → 19th (A) and the Foetid Bloat-drone 16th → 27th (A): wrong.
- Lord of Virulence 28th → 20th (B): right.
- Death Guard +8.2 fixed, +4.9 held out.
- Votann: Hearthguard 16th → 14th (A): right, but small. Thunderkyn 5th → 6th (A): it gains ×1.35 for Infantry, but so does nearly the whole army. The layer can't separate Votann units that are all Infantry and all Move 5, and the army loses 5.4 held out.
- Land Speeders fall, against the letters. Vehicle and Fly together outweigh the speed credit:
- Space Marines' Land Speeder 29th → 43rd (S S);
- Dark Angels' Land Speeder 37th → 54th (S) and Land Speeder Vengeance 6th → 33rd (A).
- Scouts rise, as the letters want: Space Marines' Scout Squad 54th → 33rd (S S), Dark Angels' 60th → 41st (A).
- Space Wolves:
- Wulfen with Storm Shields 4th → 2nd (B), Wulfen 8th → 5th (C), Wolf Scouts 18th → 14th (B).
- Epic Heroes, which gain up to ×2.46 (Njal: Epic Hero and Psyker): Logan Grimnar 2nd → 1st (S) and Arjac 12th → 9th (A), right; Ragnar 7th → 3rd (C) and Ulrik 15th → 11th (C), wrong.
- Bjorn 1st → 6th (A) holds his Value (Vehicle −0.3 cancels Epic Hero +0.3) as others pass him.
- Space Wolves +2.1 fixed, −0.2 held out. They don't fall again, as predicted they would.
Against the prediction (written before scoring):
- Wrong on the gain: +0.2, against +0.5 to +2.0. Wrong on the count: 7 armies not falling, against 9 to 11.
- Wrong on which dials are stable: predicted Infantry and Vehicle; it was Fly, Epic Hero, Psyker and speed.
- Right on Fly −0.3, Epic Hero and Psyker +0.3 and speed at the top. Right on the Death Guard engines down, Hearthguard, Wulfen and Wolf Scouts up, and the Land Speeder down.
- The Tyranids did better than predicted (+1.4, against −1 to +1). Shuffled seed 11 at +1.5 sits just above the predicted range.
What it means.
- Unit kind is real in sample but not portable. The dials that suit 10 armies hurt 5 others: Adeptus Mechanicus, Astra Militarum, Votann and Emperor's Children lose 4 to 9 points. Their reviewers do not mark Infantry up and vehicles down the way Space Marines' and Blood Angels' do.
- One factor per kind across all armies is too blunt. Shuffled letters gain as much, so the held-out +0.2 is noise.
- If the idea comes back, it should be as Fly, Epic Hero and Psyker only (the stable three), declared and measured as a step of its own. Speed is excluded because it is picked on noise too. Nothing here is saved as a benchmark.
The test, as written before scoring
- Base: step 41 (tools/ledger-benchmarks/2026-10-06-step41-stable.json, Track A2 candidate).
- The layer: Value′ = Value × exp(kInfantry·Infantry + kMonster·Monster + kVehicle·Vehicle + kFly·Fly + kEpic·Epic Hero + kPsyker·Psyker) × (M ÷ M̃_kind)^kSpeed.
- The flags and Move come from the unit's own datasheet.
- M̃_kind is the median Move of the army's ranked units of the same body kind: Vehicle, Monster, Mounted, Infantry, other.
- Without a Move, the speed factor is 1.
- The grid, coarse and symmetric, so no value is set by hand: each k on {−0.3, 0, +0.3}, kSpeed on {−0.5, 0, 0.5, 1}. That is 2,916 candidates. The base (all 0) comes first and wins ties.
- Measure: recipestep.js's protocol, here in tools/kindstep.js because the grid is too large for recipestep's pair tables.
- The held-out exam: 15 exam armies, 3 seeds × 3 folds; dials chosen on 10 armies, scored on 5.
- Paired unit bootstrap (1,000 draws) and armies resampled.
- Beside it: leave one army out; Gemini at half weight; three shuffled letter sets; the Tyranids.
- The scorer is checked against the exam's own path: the modal pick, run through exam.js with the chain (typical, then the kind layer), scores equal on 15 of 15 armies.
- Keep if the human held-out gain over step 41 is positive with its 95% unit-bootstrap interval's lower end above −0.5, and at least 9 of 15 armies don't fall. Otherwise revert.
The numbers (tools/kindstep.js --boot 1000 --verify)
Base: step 41; 2916 candidates. Modal human pick: Infantry +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
| Yardstick | Held-out gain [units] {armies} | Up / down (not falling) | Leave one out [units] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Human lists | +0.2 ± 1.2 [−1.6, +1.9] {−2.0, +2.4} | 7 / 8 (7) | +1.0 [−1.2, +3.0] |
| Gemini at half | +0.3 ± 1.2 [−1.6, +2.1] {−1.8, +2.5} | 8 / 7 (8) | +0.2 [−1.8, +2.2] |
| Shuffled, seed 11 | +1.5 ± 0.8 | 11 / 4 (11) | +2.8 |
| Shuffled, seed 12 | −0.1 ± 0.7 | 5 / 10 (5) | +0.6 |
| Shuffled, seed 13 | −1.2 ± 0.9 | 8 / 7 (8) | +0.1 |
Keep rule: verdict revert (gain +0.2 [−1.6, +1.9], 7 of 15 not falling). Pooled base 60.5.
The picks, fold by fold (human letters; seed s, fold f: the dials chosen on the other 10):
- seed 1, fold 1 (astra-militarum, blood-angels, thousand-sons, adeptus-mechanicus, space-wolves): Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly -0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 1, fold 2 (drukhari, world-eaters, emperors-children, dark-angels, agents-of-the-imperium): Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 1, fold 3 (leagues-of-votann, orks, death-guard, space-marines, genestealer-cults): Infantry +0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 2, fold 1 (emperors-children, drukhari, adeptus-mechanicus, leagues-of-votann, space-wolves): Infantry +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 2, fold 2 (space-marines, dark-angels, agents-of-the-imperium, thousand-sons, world-eaters): Infantry -0.3, Monster -0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 2, fold 3 (genestealer-cults, death-guard, astra-militarum, blood-angels, orks): Infantry +0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 3, fold 1 (death-guard, space-wolves, agents-of-the-imperium, world-eaters, orks): Monster +0.3, Vehicle +0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 3, fold 2 (astra-militarum, drukhari, adeptus-mechanicus, genestealer-cults, blood-angels): Infantry +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1
- seed 3, fold 3 (emperors-children, thousand-sons, dark-angels, space-marines, leagues-of-votann): Infantry -0.3, Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Speed +1
Per dial across the 9 human folds (count at each level) and the 15 leave-one-out fits:
| Dial | 9 folds | 15 leave-one-out |
|---|---|---|
| kInfantry | -0.3: 2, 0: 3, 0.3: 4 | -0.3: 1, 0: 0, 0.3: 14 |
| kMonster | -0.3: 3, 0: 4, 0.3: 2 | -0.3: 1, 0: 14, 0.3: 0 |
| kVehicle | -0.3: 5, 0: 3, 0.3: 1 | -0.3: 0, 0: 15, 0.3: 0 |
| kFly | -0.3: 9, 0: 0, 0.3: 0 | -0.3: 15, 0: 0, 0.3: 0 |
| kEpic | -0.3: 0, 0: 1, 0.3: 8 | -0.3: 0, 0: 0, 0.3: 15 |
| kPsyker | -0.3: 0, 0: 2, 0.3: 7 | -0.3: 0, 0: 1, 0.3: 14 |
| kSpeed | -0.5: 0, 0: 0, 0.5: 0, 1: 9 | -0.5: 0, 0: 0, 0.5: 0, 1: 15 |
Shuffled letters' picks (9 folds each): seed 11: Infantry +0.3, Monster -0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Monster -0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Monster -0.3, Vehicle +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry -0.3, Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1 · seed 12: Monster +0.3, Vehicle +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Monster -0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1 · seed 13: Infantry -0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle +0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker -0.3, Speed +1; Infantry -0.3, Monster +0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry -0.3, Monster +0.3, Epic -0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry -0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle +0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly +0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry +0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Epic -0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry -0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5; Infantry -0.3, Monster +0.3, Vehicle +0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed -0.5
Each fixed candidate over the base, the exam's 15 (human [units] {armies}, up/down; half; shuffled mean of three; Tyranids):
| Candidate | Human | Half | Shuffled (mean of 3) | Tyranids 3 lists | 5 lists | consensus |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| base | 60.5 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 90.4 (583) | ||
| modal Infantry +0.3, Vehicle -0.3, Fly -0.3, Epic +0.3, Psyker +0.3, Speed +1 | +2.0 [−0.5, +4.4] {−1.5, +5.9}, 9/6 | +2.3 [−0.1, +4.5] | −0.2 | 84.0 | 79.8 | 92.6 |
| Infantry -0.3 | −0.6 [−2.4, +1.3] {−2.7, +2.2}, 3/11 | −0.8 [−2.6, +1.0] | −0.0 | 82.3 | 78.9 | 90.9 |
| Infantry +0.3 | −0.1 [−1.5, +1.2] {−1.6, +1.1}, 8/7 | +0.2 [−1.1, +1.4] | +0.1 | 82.7 | 78.9 | 91.3 |
| Monster -0.3 | −0.4 [−1.4, +0.5] {−1.3, +0.2}, 3/3 | −0.4 [−1.3, +0.4] | −0.1 | 82.7 | 78.9 | 91.3 |
| Monster +0.3 | −0.1 [−0.9, +0.8] {−0.9, +0.8}, 3/4 | −0.1 [−0.8, +0.7] | +0.1 | 82.3 | 78.9 | 90.9 |
| Vehicle -0.3 | +0.3 [−1.0, +1.6] {−1.2, +1.7}, 9/5 | +0.7 [−0.5, +1.9] | +0.2 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 90.4 |
| Vehicle +0.3 | −0.6 [−2.2, +1.1] {−2.6, +1.8}, 2/12 | −0.8 [−2.5, +1.0] | −0.2 | 82.6 | 79.4 | 90.4 |
| Fly -0.3 | −0.6 [−1.9, +0.5] {−2.3, +0.9}, 5/5 | −0.5 [−1.9, +0.6] | −0.4 | 83.1 | 79.7 | 91.3 |
| Fly +0.3 | −0.4 [−1.6, +0.9] {−1.8, +1.0}, 5/8 | −0.6 [−1.8, +0.7] | +0.2 | 81.1 | 77.9 | 89.2 |
| Epic -0.3 | −1.5 [−2.9, −0.2] {−2.7, −0.4}, 2/9 | −1.3 [−2.6, −0.1] | +0.3 | 82.0 | 79.3 | 89.5 |
| Epic +0.3 | +0.4 [−0.9, +1.7] {−0.6, +1.4}, 7/5 | +0.4 [−0.6, +1.6] | +0.1 | 83.0 | 79.4 | 91.3 |
| Psyker -0.3 | −1.0 [−1.9, −0.2] {−2.3, −0.0}, 3/5 | −1.0 [−2.0, −0.2] | +0.1 | 82.4 | 79.0 | 90.7 |
| Psyker +0.3 | +0.3 [−0.7, +1.3] {−0.7, +1.4}, 8/4 | +0.3 [−0.8, +1.2] | −0.2 | 82.2 | 78.9 | 90.1 |
| Speed -0.5 | −1.2 [−2.5, +0.0] {−3.2, +0.4}, 3/11 | −1.3 [−2.6, −0.1] | −0.0 | 82.4 | 78.9 | 90.2 |
| Speed +0.5 | +0.5 [−0.6, +1.6] {−0.6, +1.5}, 7/6 | +0.4 [−0.6, +1.5] | +0.5 | 82.3 | 78.8 | 90.9 |
| Speed +1 | +1.3 [−0.6, +3.0] {−0.4, +3.1}, 9/5 | +1.1 [−0.5, +2.6] | +0.8 | 82.5 | 79.0 | 91.6 |
Per army (human; base, held-out change, the modal pick fixed; half's held-out change):
| Army (lists, graded) | Base | Held out | Modal fixed | Held out, half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Marines (2, 84) | 60.3 | +4.4 | +4.3 | +3.7 |
| Adeptus Mechanicus (1, 31) | 70.5 | −6.9 | −7.5 | −4.6 |
| Agents of the Imperium (1, 29) | 60.1 | +0.9 | +0.9 | +2.3 |
| Astra Militarum (1, 63) | 69.4 | −6.4 | −9.0 | −4.6 |
| Blood Angels (1, 19) | 69.4 | +8.9 | +9.7 | +7.5 |
| Dark Angels (1, 80) | 53.8 | +3.3 | +3.6 | +3.2 |
| Death Guard (1, 36) | 56.1 | +4.9 | +8.2 | +3.3 |
| Drukhari (1, 24) | 61.4 | −1.6 | −1.4 | +0.9 |
| Emperor's Children (1, 23) | 69.6 | −4.0 | −4.7 | −6.3 |
| Genestealer Cults (2, 24) | 56.2 | −1.0 | −1.6 | −0.4 |
| Leagues of Votann (1, 22) | 61.0 | −5.4 | −7.6 | −9.3 |
| Orks (1, 48) | 66.2 | +3.8 | +7.1 | +3.2 |
| Space Wolves (1, 21) | 45.0 | −0.2 | +2.1 | −0.3 |
| Thousand Sons (1, 28) | 41.4 | +3.6 | +20.7 | +6.2 |
| World Eaters (3, 30) | 67.1 | −0.5 | +5.7 | −0.1 |
What moves at the modal pick (rank among the army's ranked units, before → after; factor; 11e letters):
- Death Guard (36 ranked): Lord of Contagion 3 → 5 (×1.35; S); Defiler 4 → 11 (×0.89; B); Myphitic Blight-hauler 11 → 19 (×0.74; A); Lord of Virulence 28 → 20 (×1.35; B); Foetid Bloat-drone with heavy blight launcher 7 → 21 (×0.55; C); Plagueburst Crawler 21 → 24 (×0.74; C); Helbrute 12 → 26 (×0.52; C); Foetid Bloat-drone 16 → 27 (×0.55; A)
- Leagues of Votann (22 ranked): Brôkhyr Thunderkyn 5 → 6 (×1.35; A); Einhyr Hearthguard 16 → 14 (×1.35; A)
- Space Marines (84 ranked): Scout Squad 54 → 33 (×1.35; S S); Land Speeder 29 → 43 (×0.77; S S)
- Dark Angels (93 ranked): Land Speeder Vengeance 6 → 33 (×0.77; A); Scout Squad 60 → 41 (×1.35; A); Land Speeder 37 → 54 (×0.77; S)
- Space Wolves (21 ranked): Logan Grimnar 2 → 1 (×1.56; S); Wulfen with Storm Shields 4 → 2 (×1.74; B); Ragnar Blackmane 7 → 3 (×1.82; C); Njal Stormcaller 16 → 4 (×2.46; B); Wulfen 8 → 5 (×1.74; C); Bjorn the Fell-Handed 1 → 6 (×1.00; A); Murderfang 3 → 8 (×1.00; C); Arjac Rockfist 12 → 9 (×1.56; A); Ulrik the Slayer 15 → 11 (×1.82; C); Wolf Scouts 18 → 14 (×1.93; B); Wulfen Dreadnought 13 → 19 (×0.74; C)
Verify: the modal pick through the exam's path equals this tool's score on 15 of 15 armies.