T-524 round 3 and T-538, for T-523 (Jordan, 1 Oct (Pacific), via the design session: the bundle rule, delivery modes and the round-3 fixes). A report, not the site: nothing here changes a published score or page. The working and every table are in each army's report, section "Round 3": Space Marines and Orks.
The short answer
V3 is the best of the job-based systems, and closes most of the gap to V1, but doesn't pass it.
V3 is V2's four jobs with Hammer counted as damage delivered before death. It scores each unit under every way it may legally reach the fight (walking, Deep Strike, Strategic Reserves, or in a Dedicated Transport bundle) and keeps the best. It adds four of the five fixes the design session listed:
- (a) mortal wounds from abilities;
- (b) characters that join a squad aren't Runners;
- (c) Battle-shock only below half strength;
- (e) Indirect Fire in range from turn 1.
Fix (d), transport capacity in Banner, made every yardstick worse, so it's out.
| System | ρ with list share | Space Marines, ρ with the list's order | Orks, ρ with the review's order |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today's letter | – | −0.31 | 0.24 |
| V1, fitted | 0.174 | −0.27 | 0.22 |
| V2 | 0.127 | −0.23 | 0.12 |
| V2b | 0.087 | −0.24 | 0.06 |
| V3 | 0.164 | −0.18 | 0.18 |
Space Marines: V3 is the least wrong of every system, though all of them still run against Tista Minis' order.
Orks: V3 is second only to V1.
The two centrepieces. V3 is the only new system that rates both Mortarion and Ghazghkull well:
- Mortarion: A overall, B within Death Guard (12th of 36). Under V2 he was 30th; his mortal wounds and walking delivery now count.
- Ghazghkull: B overall, A within Orks (13th of 55). Under V1 he was 37th.
What each term did
ρ with list share, each term switched on by itself, against V3 with every term off (0.107):
| Term | ρ | Change | Space Marines order | Orks order |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) mortal wounds, 34 abilities | 0.109 | +0.002 | −0.26 | 0.13 |
| (b) joiners aren't Runners | 0.143 | +0.036 | −0.30 | 0.16 |
| (c) Battle-shock below half | 0.116 | +0.009 | −0.24 | 0.10 |
| (d) transport capacity in Banner | 0.097 | −0.010 | −0.24 | 0.06 |
| (e) Indirect Fire from turn 1 | 0.107 | 0 | −0.26 | 0.13 |
| Delivery modes and the bundle | 0.116 | +0.009 | −0.11 | 0.13 |
| V3 (all but d) | 0.164 | +0.057 | −0.18 | 0.18 |
Two terms do the work:
- (b) fits what players take. A Chaplain is no longer an S Runner.
- Delivery fits the Space Marine list's order (−0.26 to −0.11), mostly by lifting the melta and flamer infantry that ride in.
Mortal wounds matter for a few units (Mortarion, the Necron C'tan), not for the whole order. Indirect Fire changes nothing, because almost every Indirect Fire weapon already reaches by turn 2.
How units arrive
Under V3, of 1,161 units:
- 579 walk;
- 220 Deep Strike;
- 233 come from Strategic Reserves;
- 129 ride a Dedicated Transport.
The bundle rule as built:
- The unit plus its best legal Dedicated Transport, priced together.
- The unit can't be shot while inside on turn 1.
- The transport's guns add to Hammer; its body adds to Anvil.
- Who may ride what is read from BSData's capacity lines (tools/transports.js): the keywords a passenger needs, the models it can't carry, and the ones that take two or three spaces.
Two choices I made:
- Only Dedicated Transports. With every transport allowed, Scouts chose a Land Raider Crusader and Boyz a Gunwagon, and every passenger inherited a big tank's guns.
- Characters aren't bundled. They ride with the squad they join. Without that, a Palatine in an Immolator showed +35,000%.
The doubt. At the median, the transport's own guns are 57% of a bundle's damage. For a passenger that does little itself (Krieg Combat Engineers 0.6 → 10.1 a turn per 100 pts in a Chimera), the letter mostly measures its ride. That's the rule as set ("when you pay for the transport you also get its guns"). Jordan may want the unit page's line to say so: "Best delivered by Chimera; 87% of it is the Chimera".
Round 1's groups:
| Group | Units | V2b → V3 | Moved toward the public list? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rated higher by the list | Infernus | C → B | Yes |
| Intercessors | B → A | Yes | |
| Eradicators | stay D | No | |
| Rated lower by the list | Centurion Assault | S → A | Yes |
| Terminators | A → S | No (by Deep Strike) | |
| Thunderkin-style arrivals | Brôkhyr Thunderkyn | stay D, walk | – |
- Eradicators: melta is still diluted by averaging over five targets. That's the archetype lever (T-529, T-531), not delivery.
- Brôkhyr Thunderkyn: reserves didn't beat walking for them.
- Overall: of the public list's units that arrive other than on foot, the mean distance from its letters goes from 1.84 tiers (V2b) to 1.79 (V3).
Turn by turn (each army report prints the profiles):
- Centurions and Terminators stay at 100% alive through turn 5. That's the slow-durable bias the design session suspected: they live long enough that arriving late costs them little. V2b's −0.24 was mostly that.
- Eradicators are 3% alive by turn 4.
- Scouts in a Rhino are 36% alive by turn 3.
What's next (for Jordan's read)
- Adopting V3's terms: V3 with (a), (b), (c), (e) and delivery is the job-based system to take forward if the redesign goes ahead. V1 still fits list share slightly better (0.174 against 0.164).
- The next lever is the targets, not delivery. Re-weighting the archetypes toward vehicles and elite infantry (T-529's recommended set, T-531's lenses) is what should lift melta and anti-tank units.
- The slow-durable bias: turns alive at most 5 rewards units that are never in danger. Capping turns alive at the game's remaining turns after arrival, or counting exposure by distance, is the next test.
- Mortal-wound estimates: they count both players' Fight phases. Halving that roughly halves Helbrecht (3.5 a round) and the Bloodthirster (3.6). It barely changes the ρ.
- The Context rule's cost (best detachment, transport and loadout behind each letter, with the floor shown): about 25,000 detachment cells, build time 28 s to about 40 s, rankings.json from 356 KB to under 400 KB gzipped. Affordable (T-539).